“There should have been a Secretary of the Future.” – Kurt Vonnegut
Wired has a great article online covering their failed predictions from the past, which includes the death of brands and online song-sharing. One of their more ridiculous claims was that “futurism is dead.”
Far from dead, Futurism has merely become a more esoteric interest, but it’s something everyone should be concerned with. The Long Now Foundation seeks to find and encourage ways for humans to project where our species, environment, and culture will be 10,000 years from now. Dr. David Brin has called for Prediction Registries, which would not only allow the public to monitor predictions made by public figures and rate their accuracy, but would also legitimize the science of futurism, a science we desperately need in today’s world of runaway technology and unintended consequences.
Futurism and Prophecy are essentially the same thing, and should be held to the same standards. The Bible takes prophecy very seriously:
…when a prophet speaks in the name of the LORD, if the word does not come to pass or come true, that is a word which the LORD has not spoken; the prophet has spoken it presumptuously, you need not be afraid of him. (Deuteronomy 18:22)
Which is funny, considering what poor futurists the Biblical prophets make. Jesus and Paul both predicted the world would end in their lifetimes. Christians have been predicting the world would end in their lifetimes for 2,000 years. Jews have been predicting a messiah will come for just as long plus a few centuries. I’m sure Islam has lots of poor predictions too, but I’m too lazy to look them up now.
Science makes predictions too. Science predicts when the eclipse will happen, when the Sun will set, when the planets will align, when the tides will rise and fall, and that it takes 365.25635 days for the Earth to go once around the Sun. Science predicts the watched pot will boil at 100 degrees Celsius, that the small stone will fall as fast as the large one, and that for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction.
Science predicts those cigarettes will increase your chances of getting lung cancer, those Big Macs will increase your chances of getting heart disease, and those soft drinks will increase your chances of developing type-II diabetes.
Science predicts the oil will run out, the greenhouse gases will warm our planet with disastrous results, and that we are changing our world environment in profound ways.
If you were to place a bet on the future at Long Bets, wouldn’t it make sense to side with the scientists? If schools of thought were rated, science would have the best prediction track record.